Trade credit insurer, Euler Hermes, suggests that this is a combination of a ‘lower for longer’ economic activity (most notably in advanced counties and the industrial sector) coupled with the effects of trade disputes and political uncertainties, which will keep global companies under pressure. Profit margins in many counties will be limited due to price competition and overall higher salaries, say experts. Insolvency ‘hotspots’ include construction in Asia, energy and retail in North America and retail and services in Western Europe.
Asia will see the biggest rise in insolvencies at +8%, followed closely by China at +10% and India at +11%. In Western Europe, where economic growth has fallen below the historical threshold and which often results in fewer insolvencies, will see an increase in financial instability and business failures across most of its countries with Germany at 3%, Italy at +4% and Spain +5%. The UK is projected at +3%.
It is predicted that four out of five counties will post a rise in insolvencies in 2020, with Brazil and France being key exceptions.
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